Politics, Philosophy & Social Sciences      Government & Politics

Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research (Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences)

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Book Details
Language
English
Publishers
Cambridge University Press (7 Mar. 2024)
Weight
0.55 KG
Publication Date
16/02/2024
ISBN-10
1108482791
Pages
200 pages
ISBN-13
9781108482790
Dimensions
15.24 x 1.75 x 22.86 cm
SKU
9781108482790
Author Name
Michael A. Bailey (Author)
Michael A. Bailey is the Colonel William J. Walsh Professor of American Government in the Department of Government and the MCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University.Bailey teaches and conducts research on American politics and political economy. His work covering trade, Congress, election law and the Supreme Court, methodology and inter-state policy competition has been published in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, World Politics, the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization and elsewhere.He is author of Polling at Crossroads from Cambridge University Press, a book in which he outlines the pernicious nature of non-response in contemporary polls and advocates for new ways of thinking about the problem.He is co-author (with Forrest Maltzman) of The Constrained Court: Law, Politics and the Decisions Justices Make from from Princeton University Press. He is also the author of Real Stats from Oxford University Press.He has also written two statistics books. The goal of these books is to get to interesting and useful statistical material as quickly as possible. To be useful, the books focus on endogeneity (“correlation is not causation”) and to be interesting, the books quickly start using real data sets to answer important questions. The books are quite similar. Real Stats focuses on political and policy examples. Real Econometrics focuses on economic and policy examples.Bailey has been a visiting faculty member at Sciences Po - Paris, Oxford University and the University of Tokyo. He was born in Minneapolis. He is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame (BA) and Stanford University (Ph.D.). He was a Monbusho Scholar in Japan and is conversational in Japanese.Read more about this authorRead less about this author
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Survey research is in a state of crisis. People have become less willing to respond to polls and recent misses in critical elections have undermined the field's credibility.

Pollsters have developed many tools for dealing with the new environment, an increasing number of which rely on risky opt-in samples. Virtually all of these tools require that respondents in each demographic category are a representative sample of all people in each demographic category, something that is unlikely to be reliably true.

Polling at a Crossroads moves beyond such strong limitations, providing tools that work even when survey respondents are unrepresentative in complex ways. This book provides case studies that show how to avoid underestimating Trump support and how conventional polls exaggerate partisan differences.

This book also helps us think in clear and sometimes counterintuitive ways and points toward simple, low-cost changes that can better address contemporary polling challenges. .

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